Change the business.
Watch the statements react.
No real company. No market tip. Just a controlled model that shows how operating assumptions flow through earnings, working capital, cash flow, capital employed and debt.
YOUR ASSUMPTIONS
Change one driver at a time.
Experiment rule: move one slider, predict the direction of the outputs, then check the model. The objective is causal understanding—not getting a high score.
MODEL OUTPUT
One business. Five connected views.
REVENUE—fictional units
OPERATING PROFIT—after operating costs
NET PROFIT—simplified after interest/tax
OPERATING CASH—profit adjusted for working capital
FREE CASH FLOW—operating cash less capex
ROCE—simplified operating profit / capital
DEBT / OP PROFIT—simplified leverage lens
CASH CONVERSION—operating cash / operating profit
Cash bridge
Operating profit—
Working-capital investment—
Operating cash—
Capital expenditure—
Free cash flow—
WHAT TO NOTICE
Don't memorize the formula. Watch the system.
01 · GROWTH
More revenue can require more capital.
If receivables and inventory rise faster, reported growth can consume cash even while profit rises.
02 · MARGIN
Operating leverage changes the picture.
A small margin change can move operating profit disproportionately because revenue is the base on which the margin is earned.
03 · CAPITAL
Returns depend on the capital required.
ROCE is not a growth metric. It connects operating earnings to the resources tied up to produce them.
NEXT QUESTION
If this were real, what evidence would you verify?
Take the model into a research mission. Identify which assumptions need primary evidence before you trust the conclusion.